Election Prediction
I was going to write a long and detailed post about why you should not vote Lib Dem, but I got distracted by decorations and in the end I really can't be bothered.
So instead a prediction. I have followed the polls quite closely, but there is only so much they can tell you.
UNS will be of no use this time round. It is barely passable in a 2-party election, it is even worse in a 3-party election, it is completely rubbish when there is a transition between a two and a three party election.
For what it is worth the final poll results are: (with Conservative leads) Con/Lab/Lib
Populus: 37/28/27 +9
ComRes: 37/28/28 +9
ICM: 36/28/26 +8
YouGov: 35/28/28 +7
Opinium: 35/27/26 +8
Angus Reid: 36/24/29 +7
Harris: 35/29/27 +6
TNS BMRB: 33/27/29 +4
I would ignore the last 3. They seem close but they have not been consistent over the past month or have methodical faults, such as internet polling producing much higher Lib Dem numbers.
The YouGov poll was huge: 6483! Populus was pretty large too: 2500.
I get most of my polling stuff from ukpollingreport.co.uk A fantastic resource for all things political data related.
But how this translates into seats is a completely different thing. It all depends on the marginals and how things have been affected by the Lib Dem unexpected increase in popularity. Lib Dems will probably take votes from Labour in Labour strongholds, making more places competitive for the Conservatives. On the other hand Con/Lib marginals may not be as winnable. It all depends.....
I think the Conservatives will come out of it well. I think the increased number of seats they are going to be competitive in outweigh the number lost due to the Lib Dem increase. Before the increase it was almost certainly going to be a Hung Parliament, however it is now up in the air. Marginal Polling data supports this.
So, a prediction.
Conservatives 300-310 seats. I would hope for more, but this is probably where it will land.
Lib Dems less than 100, probably in the 80 - 90 range (not a bad result for them). Maybe slightly higher.
Labour in the low 200s. 210 or there abouts. Depends on how they do in Scotland and Wales and how many safe seats they loose by surprise. They could do significantly better just based on the way the vote eventually lands in their safer seats.
I also expect an increased number of 'others' . The greens are competitive in 3 seats, so may get one. I do not expect the BNP to get a seat. UKIP might do, hopefully the speakers. Then there are the national parties that will probably make increases too.
I expect a working Conservative minority government, though a majority is still entirely possible.
I do not expect a Lab/Lib coalition.
I do expect a new Labour Leader within 3 months, probably a lot less. However if it is a working Conservative minority Brown may well try and stay on, hoping for an economic collapse in a few months.
I expect David Milliband to be the next elected Labour leader. (there will be a place-holder while party elections are held). I expect this even if Ed Balls somehow does keep his seat, Mandelson is just too powerful. For a fantastic article on how we all need Mandelson's help right not see here.
I would really like for Balls to loose his seat.
Whatever party wins, or forms the next government I expect the celebrations to be very short lived. There will be hge cuts. It will be noticeable. It needs to be done and it will be done, there is no choice. I expect the next government to be extremely unpopular. The Lib Dems have the most to gain from this for next time around.