Debate
So, the first ever prime ministerial televised debates are tonight, and I am expecting them to be quite exciting. They should have been done long ago, and while I am not fond of the prime minister becoming more and more presidential this is one side effect that I am completely okay with.
It took so long because someone was always going to come off worse. However in this case it was a bit backwards. Normally it is the person ahead in the polls that refuses to debate, this time it was the guy who is probably going to voted out anyway. If you watch PMQs regularly you will know that Gordon Brown has regularly refused to take part in this sort of debate. And while I do not hold that against him, I do find it a bit unusual.
In 1992 John Major refused a debate, because he was ahead and went on to win, then in 1997 he asked for one when he was behind and Tony Blair went on to win. However this time it is backwards, David Cameron was ahead (much more so than he is at the moment) continually asked for them and Gordon Brown refused. Even in January of this year, when everyone with a pulse knew the election was going to be May 6th, he still refuses when invited by SKY, because, among other reasons, he did not know when the election was going to be.
I pass no judgement on this, I just find it a bit odd, and a pattern that seems to repeat itself (see the Ex-General Secretary of the Labour Party for more info). And overall I am very surprised that they are actually happening.
Today ITV are hosting a debate on Domestic Affairs, then next week it is SKY on International Affairs, then finally the week after that it is the BBC on Economic Affairs.
So, overall I expect them all to come out of it quite well. There will have been huge amounts of preparation on all sides. I expect Nick Clegg to come off the best, simply by being there. If David Cameron does his job properly he will do fantastically, and as for Gordon Brown, despite most peoples opinion of him, he is very clever, he is articulate, however his demeanour and style has never really been suited to TV.
I expect the debates to get very dirty, a lot of insults, a lot of references back to pre 1997 conditions by Gordon Brown and all in all I expect very little to be changed by the debate. Maybe a small rise by the Lib Dems in the Sunday polls.
There is so much contempt from hard core Labour supporters to ever consider switching to the Conservatives, and the majority of Conservative supporters blame Gordon Brown personally for all the problems of the last 13 years. So I would be very surprised if tonight ended up changing much.
Gordon Brown has the problem that he has been running things for the past decade, he is too closely linked to every single problem in that time. David Cameron has the problem of his accent and his background.
Also he is not William Hague or Boris.